Round 22 · 2026
Qatar Grand Prix
Lusail International Circuit · Lusail, Qatar
--:--:--Weekend schedule
- FP1
- FP2
- FP3
- Qualifying
- Race
GuessFC race prediction
20,000 simulated races from this season's real results. Before qualifying — updates once the grid is set.
86
Chaos Index
Medium
Confidence
| Driver | Win | Podium | Points | DNF | xPos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes | 30.4% | 65.2% | 92.7% | 6.1% | 4 |
| 2Max VerstappenRed Bull | 24% | 54.5% | 81.2% | 17.5% | 6.2 |
| 3Lewis HamiltonFerrari | 15.8% | 48% | 90.9% | 5.9% | 5 |
| 4Charles LeclercFerrari | 10.8% | 36.1% | 81.9% | 13.5% | 6.8 |
| 5George RussellMercedes | 7.3% | 29.1% | 79.3% | 13.5% | 7.4 |
| 6Lando NorrisMcLaren | 4.4% | 19.6% | 71.3% | 17.5% | 8.8 |
| 7Isack HadjarRed Bull | 2.9% | 15.5% | 72.1% | 11.1% | 8.6 |
| 8Oscar PiastriMcLaren | 2.4% | 13% | 67.7% | 13.4% | 9.2 |
| 9Liam LawsonRB F1 Team | 0.6% | 4.7% | 53.9% | 6.1% | 10.5 |
| 10Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team | 0.3% | 2.9% | 41.1% | 10.1% | 12 |
| 11Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team | 0.3% | 2.7% | 42% | 9.5% | 11.9 |
| 12Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team | 0.2% | 1.8% | 34.1% | 13.2% | 12.8 |
| 13Gabriel BortoletoAudi | 0.2% | 1.6% | 32.2% | 9.9% | 12.9 |
| 14Nico HülkenbergAudi | 0.1% | 1.1% | 28.3% | 17.4% | 13.7 |
| 15Carlos SainzWilliams | 0.1% | 1% | 25.2% | 13.6% | 13.8 |
| 16Ryo HirakawaHaas F1 Team | 0.1% | 0.9% | 25.5% | 7.1% | 13.5 |
| 17Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team | 0.1% | 0.8% | 21% | 24.2% | 14.7 |
| 18Fernando AlonsoAston Martin | 0% | 0.5% | 15.9% | 28.4% | 15.5 |
| 19Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team | 0% | 0.4% | 15.3% | 21% | 15.3 |
| 20Alexander AlbonWilliams | 0% | 0.4% | 13.8% | 31.7% | 15.9 |
| 21Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team | 0% | 0.1% | 8.5% | 39.1% | 17 |
| 22Lance StrollAston Martin | 0% | 0.1% | 6.4% | 50.7% | 17.7 |
Why — factor breakdown
Andrea Kimi Antonellistrength +3.78
- Recent form · 18 pts/race (recent)+1.48
- Qualifying pace · avg P4.3 in qualifying+0.54
- Car / team · team 27 pts/race+0.73
- Season level · 18.4 pts/start+0.84
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.22
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.03
Max Verstappenstrength +3.68
- Recent form · 18.7 pts/race (recent)+1.56
- Qualifying pace · avg P3.8 in qualifying+0.58
- Car / team · team 23.6 pts/race+0.59
- Season level · 12.7 pts/start+0.49
- Reliability · 17% DNF risk0
- Circuit record · 2 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.45
Lewis Hamiltonstrength +2.93
- Recent form · 11.9 pts/race (recent)+0.81
- Qualifying pace · avg P3.6 in qualifying+0.6
- Car / team · team 24.4 pts/race+0.63
- Season level · 12.2 pts/start+0.46
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.22
- Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.21
Charles Leclercstrength +2.58
- Recent form · 13.1 pts/race (recent)+0.93
- Qualifying pace · avg P3.8 in qualifying+0.58
- Car / team · team 24.4 pts/race+0.63
- Season level · 11.1 pts/start+0.4
- Reliability · 13% DNF risk+0.07
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.03
George Russellstrength +2.16
- Recent form · 8.4 pts/race (recent)+0.42
- Qualifying pace · avg P4.2 in qualifying+0.55
- Car / team · team 27 pts/race+0.73
- Season level · 11.4 pts/start+0.41
- Reliability · 13% DNF risk+0.07
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.03
Lando Norrisstrength +1.65
- Recent form · 9.9 pts/race (recent)+0.58
- Qualifying pace · avg P5.3 in qualifying+0.47
- Car / team · team 16.5 pts/race+0.3
- Season level · 9.9 pts/start+0.32
- Reliability · 17% DNF risk0
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.03
How the F1 model works
Each driver gets a strength from real results, each signal compared with the rest of the field:
- Recent form30%
- Qualifying pace20%
- Car / team20%
- Season level15%
- Reliability10%
- Circuit record5%
The race is then simulated 20,000 times with race-day randomness and each driver's own retirement risk; counting the finishing positions gives the win, podium and points chances. Tuned on the 2024–2026 seasons. Chaos Index: Average DNF risk 17% · Favourite's edge over 2nd: 6.4 pts · 2 different winners in the last 3 races here.
Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product. Based on 19 races this season.
Past winners here
- 2024Max Verstappen Red Bull
- 2023Max Verstappen Red Bull
- 2021Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
Race result
The race hasn't started yet.
Data: Jolpica F1 (Ergast-compatible).