🏎️ Formula 1 2026

19/23 rounds completed · Leader: Andrea Kimi Antonelli (380 pts)

Next race · R20

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Brazilian Grand Prix

Autódromo José Carlos Pace · São Paulo, Brazil

  • FP1
  • FP2
  • FP3
  • Qualifying
  • Race

Brazilian Grand Prix — GuessFC prediction

20,000 simulated races from this season's real results. Before qualifying — updates once the grid is set.

80

Chaos Index

Medium

Confidence

DriverWinPodiumxPos
1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes31.7%
65.1%4.1
2Max VerstappenRed Bull18%
46.6%6.6
3Lewis HamiltonFerrari13.7%
43.1%5.4
4George RussellMercedes12.2%
39%6.7
5Charles LeclercFerrari11.8%
37.7%6.7
6Lando NorrisMcLaren4.7%
20.2%8.7
7Isack HadjarRed Bull3.2%
15.9%8.6
8Oscar PiastriMcLaren2.5%
13.2%9.2
9Liam LawsonRB F1 Team0.7%
4.9%10.6
10Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team0.4%
2.7%11.9

Why — factor breakdown

Andrea Kimi Antonellistrength +3.79
  • Recent form · 18 pts/race (recent)+1.48
  • Qualifying pace · avg P4.3 in qualifying+0.54
  • Car / team · team 27 pts/race+0.73
  • Season level · 18.4 pts/start+0.84
  • Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.22
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Max Verstappenstrength +3.21
  • Recent form · 18.7 pts/race (recent)+1.56
  • Qualifying pace · avg P3.8 in qualifying+0.58
  • Car / team · team 23.6 pts/race+0.59
  • Season level · 12.7 pts/start+0.49
  • Reliability · 17% DNF risk0
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Lewis Hamiltonstrength +2.69
  • Recent form · 11.9 pts/race (recent)+0.81
  • Qualifying pace · avg P3.6 in qualifying+0.6
  • Car / team · team 24.4 pts/race+0.63
  • Season level · 12.2 pts/start+0.46
  • Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.22
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
George Russellstrength +2.69
  • Recent form · 8.4 pts/race (recent)+0.42
  • Qualifying pace · avg P4.2 in qualifying+0.55
  • Car / team · team 27 pts/race+0.73
  • Season level · 11.4 pts/start+0.41
  • Reliability · 13% DNF risk+0.07
  • Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.5
Charles Leclercstrength +2.59
  • Recent form · 13.1 pts/race (recent)+0.93
  • Qualifying pace · avg P3.8 in qualifying+0.58
  • Car / team · team 24.4 pts/race+0.63
  • Season level · 11.1 pts/start+0.4
  • Reliability · 13% DNF risk+0.07
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Lando Norrisstrength +1.66
  • Recent form · 9.9 pts/race (recent)+0.58
  • Qualifying pace · avg P5.3 in qualifying+0.47
  • Car / team · team 16.5 pts/race+0.3
  • Season level · 9.9 pts/start+0.32
  • Reliability · 17% DNF risk0
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
How the F1 model works

Each driver gets a strength from real results, each signal compared with the rest of the field:

  • Recent form30%
  • Qualifying pace20%
  • Car / team20%
  • Season level15%
  • Reliability10%
  • Circuit record5%

The race is then simulated 20,000 times with race-day randomness and each driver's own retirement risk; counting the finishing positions gives the win, podium and points chances. Tuned on the 2024–2026 seasons. Chaos Index: Average DNF risk 17% · Favourite's edge over 2nd: 13.7 pts · 4 different winners in the last 6 races here.

Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product. Based on 19 races this season.

Latest result

Mexico City Grand Prix · R19

PosDriverTime / statusPts
1Max VerstappenRed Bull2:20:28.77225
2Lewis HamiltonFerrari⏱+0.79918
3Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes+4.00615
4Charles LeclercFerrari+10.70712
5Lando NorrisMcLaren+11.77810
6George RussellMercedes+12.2638
7Oscar PiastriMcLaren+19.4756
8Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team+20.2044
9Liam LawsonRB F1 Team+20.8992
10Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team+21.4831

Drivers' championship

After round 19

1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes9W380
2Max VerstappenRed Bull3W261
3Lewis HamiltonFerrari1W259
4George RussellMercedes3W250
5Charles LeclercFerrari1W245
6Lando NorrisMcLaren2W221
7Oscar PiastriMcLaren150
8Isack HadjarRed Bull105
9Liam LawsonRB F1 Team / Red Bull79
10Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team43
11Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team38
12Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team31
13Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team23
14Nico HülkenbergAudi13
15Gabriel BortoletoAudi10
16Esteban OconHaas F1 Team7
17Fernando AlonsoAston Martin7
18Carlos SainzWilliams7
19Alexander AlbonWilliams5
20Yuki TsunodaRB F1 Team1
21Lance StrollAston Martin0
22Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team0
23Ryo HirakawaHaas F1 Team0
24Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team0

Constructors' championship

After round 19

1Mercedes12W630
2Ferrari2W504
3Red Bull3W380
4McLaren2W371
5RB F1 Team104
6Alpine F1 Team74
7Haas F1 Team30
8Audi23
9Williams12
10Aston Martin7
11Cadillac F1 Team0

Season calendar

  1. R1Australian Grand Prix8 Mar✓
  2. R2Chinese Grand PrixSprint15 Mar✓
  3. R3Japanese Grand Prix29 Mar✓
  4. R4Miami Grand PrixSprint3 May✓
  5. R5Canadian Grand PrixSprint24 May✓
  6. R6Monaco Grand Prix7 Jun✓
  7. R7Barcelona Grand Prix14 Jun✓
  8. R8Austrian Grand Prix28 Jun✓
  9. R9British Grand PrixSprint5 Jul✓
  10. R10Belgian Grand Prix19 Jul✓
  11. R11Hungarian Grand Prix26 Jul✓
  12. R12Dutch Grand PrixSprint23 Aug✓
  13. R13Italian Grand Prix6 Sept✓
  14. R14Spanish Grand Prix13 Sept✓
  15. R15Azerbaijan Grand Prix26 Sept✓
  16. R16Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia4 Oct✓
  17. R17Singapore Grand PrixSprint11 Oct✓
  18. R18United States Grand Prix25 Oct✓
  19. R19Mexico City Grand Prix1 Nov✓
  20. R20Brazilian Grand Prix8 Nov
  21. R21Las Vegas Grand Prix22 Nov
  22. R22Qatar Grand Prix29 Nov
  23. R23Abu Dhabi Grand Prix6 Dec

Driver statistics

DriverStWPodPolesFLDNFAvg QAvg Fin+/−Last 5Pts
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes199167713.32.6+1.416.6349
Max VerstappenRed Bull193112244.83.1+2.321.6241
Lewis HamiltonFerrari19171214.14+0.112.2232
George RussellMercedes19385233.54.3-0.27.8216
Charles LeclercFerrari1916434.23.9-0.214.4211
Lando NorrisMcLaren19253244.94.3+0.96.8188
Oscar PiastriMcLaren19236.16.4-0.16129
Isack HadjarRed Bull16228.16.6+26.8105
Liam LawsonRB F1 Team19110.48.6+2.73.272
Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team191210.19.8+0.40.441
Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team1921110.1+1.61.437
Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team19312.911.1+20.831
Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team19614.712.2+1.50.419
Nico HülkenbergAudi19412.311.2+1.10.811
Gabriel BortoletoAudi19212.811.8+1010
Esteban OconHaas F1 Team18115.313.1+1.60.87
Carlos SainzWilliams19315.213.9+1.70.27
Fernando AlonsoAston Martin19718.614.8+3.30.87
Alexander AlbonWilliams19816.814.7+1.505
Yuki TsunodaRB F1 Team314.711.7+2.30.31
Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team19520.116.1+3.100
Lance StrollAston Martin191320.115.2+4.500
Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team191020.317.3+1.200
Ryo HirakawaHaas F1 Team11813+500

Grand Prix results only (sprints excluded). Avg Q = qualifying, Avg Fin = classified finishes, +/− = places gained from the grid.

Formula 1 news

🏎️ Formula 1

The boy from Bologna who became world champion

Kimi Antonelli's journey from Bologna to becoming a world champion is highlighted by the stories shared by his hometown community.

BBC Sport · 3 hrs ago

🏎️ Formula 1

A world champion but 'one of us' - a city's pride in Antonelli

Bologna celebrates Kimi Antonelli as their hometown hero after he becomes an F1 world champion.

BBC Sport · 3 hrs ago

🏎️ Formula 1

Antonelli title win 'beginning of something special'

Experts discuss the significance of Kimi Antonelli's achievement as the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history.

BBC Sport · 4 hrs ago

🏎️ Formula 1

Antonelli clinched the title - but who shone most in Mexico? Driver ratings

Driver ratings from the Mexico City Grand Prix highlight performances after Antonelli secured the title.

BBC Sport · 11 hrs ago

🏎️ Formula 1

How to follow Sao Paulo Grand Prix on the BBC

The article provides details on following the BBC coverage of the Sao Paulo Grand Prix scheduled for 6-8 November.

BBC Sport · 54 min ago

🏎️ Formula 1

Antonelli heads list of F1's youngest champions

Kimi Antonelli's achievement as F1's youngest world champion prompts a comparison with previous record holders.

BBC Sport · 16 hrs ago

Data: Jolpica F1 (Ergast-compatible). Session times shown in your time zone.