Round 20 · 2026
Brazilian Grand Prix
Autódromo José Carlos Pace · São Paulo, Brazil
--:--:--Weekend schedule
- FP1
- FP2
- FP3
- Qualifying
- Race
GuessFC race prediction
20,000 simulated races from this season's real results. Before qualifying — updates once the grid is set.
80
Chaos Index
Medium
Confidence
| Driver | Win | Podium | Points | DNF | xPos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes | 31.7% | 65.1% | 92.3% | 6.4% | 4.1 |
| 2Max VerstappenRed Bull | 18% | 46.6% | 80.7% | 17.3% | 6.6 |
| 3Lewis HamiltonFerrari | 13.7% | 43.1% | 89.5% | 6.2% | 5.4 |
| 4George RussellMercedes | 12.2% | 39% | 81.8% | 13.9% | 6.7 |
| 5Charles LeclercFerrari | 11.8% | 37.7% | 82.1% | 13.3% | 6.7 |
| 6Lando NorrisMcLaren | 4.7% | 20.2% | 72.1% | 17.1% | 8.7 |
| 7Isack HadjarRed Bull | 3.2% | 15.9% | 72.3% | 11% | 8.6 |
| 8Oscar PiastriMcLaren | 2.5% | 13.2% | 67.6% | 13.3% | 9.2 |
| 9Liam LawsonRB F1 Team | 0.7% | 4.9% | 53.2% | 6.3% | 10.6 |
| 10Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team | 0.4% | 2.7% | 42.3% | 10.2% | 11.9 |
| 11Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team | 0.3% | 2.6% | 41.9% | 9.7% | 11.9 |
| 12Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team | 0.2% | 2.1% | 34.4% | 13.6% | 12.8 |
| 13Gabriel BortoletoAudi | 0.1% | 1.4% | 32.3% | 9.7% | 12.8 |
| 14Nico HülkenbergAudi | 0.1% | 1.3% | 27.9% | 17% | 13.6 |
| 15Carlos SainzWilliams | 0.1% | 1% | 25.3% | 13.4% | 13.8 |
| 16Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team | 0.1% | 0.8% | 20.2% | 24.5% | 14.8 |
| 17Ryo HirakawaHaas F1 Team | 0% | 0.8% | 25.2% | 7.3% | 13.5 |
| 18Fernando AlonsoAston Martin | 0% | 0.5% | 15.6% | 28.6% | 15.5 |
| 19Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team | 0% | 0.4% | 15.3% | 20.6% | 15.3 |
| 20Alexander AlbonWilliams | 0% | 0.4% | 13.3% | 32.1% | 16 |
| 21Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team | 0% | 0.2% | 8.4% | 39.7% | 17 |
| 22Lance StrollAston Martin | 0% | 0.1% | 6.4% | 50.6% | 17.7 |
Why — factor breakdown
Andrea Kimi Antonellistrength +3.79
- Recent form · 18 pts/race (recent)+1.48
- Qualifying pace · avg P4.3 in qualifying+0.54
- Car / team · team 27 pts/race+0.73
- Season level · 18.4 pts/start+0.84
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.22
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Max Verstappenstrength +3.21
- Recent form · 18.7 pts/race (recent)+1.56
- Qualifying pace · avg P3.8 in qualifying+0.58
- Car / team · team 23.6 pts/race+0.59
- Season level · 12.7 pts/start+0.49
- Reliability · 17% DNF risk0
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Lewis Hamiltonstrength +2.69
- Recent form · 11.9 pts/race (recent)+0.81
- Qualifying pace · avg P3.6 in qualifying+0.6
- Car / team · team 24.4 pts/race+0.63
- Season level · 12.2 pts/start+0.46
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.22
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
George Russellstrength +2.69
- Recent form · 8.4 pts/race (recent)+0.42
- Qualifying pace · avg P4.2 in qualifying+0.55
- Car / team · team 27 pts/race+0.73
- Season level · 11.4 pts/start+0.41
- Reliability · 13% DNF risk+0.07
- Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.5
Charles Leclercstrength +2.59
- Recent form · 13.1 pts/race (recent)+0.93
- Qualifying pace · avg P3.8 in qualifying+0.58
- Car / team · team 24.4 pts/race+0.63
- Season level · 11.1 pts/start+0.4
- Reliability · 13% DNF risk+0.07
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Lando Norrisstrength +1.66
- Recent form · 9.9 pts/race (recent)+0.58
- Qualifying pace · avg P5.3 in qualifying+0.47
- Car / team · team 16.5 pts/race+0.3
- Season level · 9.9 pts/start+0.32
- Reliability · 17% DNF risk0
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
How the F1 model works
Each driver gets a strength from real results, each signal compared with the rest of the field:
- Recent form30%
- Qualifying pace20%
- Car / team20%
- Season level15%
- Reliability10%
- Circuit record5%
The race is then simulated 20,000 times with race-day randomness and each driver's own retirement risk; counting the finishing positions gives the win, podium and points chances. Tuned on the 2024–2026 seasons. Chaos Index: Average DNF risk 17% · Favourite's edge over 2nd: 13.7 pts · 4 different winners in the last 6 races here.
Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product. Based on 19 races this season.
Past winners here
- 2022George Russell Mercedes
- 2012Jenson Button McLaren
- 2011Mark Webber Red Bull
- 2009Mark Webber Red Bull
- 2005Juan Pablo Montoya McLaren
- 2004Juan Pablo Montoya Williams
- 1992Nigel Mansell Williams
- 1976Niki Lauda Ferrari
Race result
The race hasn't started yet.
Data: Jolpica F1 (Ergast-compatible).