Pro D2 · Round 9

Beziers vs Grenoble FC

Beziers
Grenoble FC

25–27

Finished

Half time 12–16

Kick-off:

Pre-match model vs result

What the model said before kickoff — built only from earlier games.

79

Volatility

Low

Confidence

Beziers
41.3%
Draw
2.5%
Grenoble FC
56.3%

25–28

Projected score

Grenoble FC 3

Expected margin (pts)

52.2

Expected total points

33.4%

Losing bonus (≤7 pts)

Final score: 25–27 · model margin -3, actual -2

How the margin is built (points, home side)

Team ratingsBeziers -8.7 vs Grenoble FC +0.4 (points vs an average side)-9.2
Home advantagemeasured from 136 games+10.4
Recent formBeziers LWLLL · Grenoble FC WWWWW-4.2
Head-to-headBeziers won 1 of the last 50
Rest7 vs 7 days since last game0

Positive = towards Beziers. Spread of outcomes (σ) 15.8 pts, measured from these teams' results. Big win (15+ pts) either way: 36.8%. Volatility: Tight contest.

How the rugby model works

1. Team ratings: every result of both teams this season and last (all competitions) is used to rate each side in points versus an average team, adjusting for who they played; recent games count more.

2. Home advantage is measured from the same games. 3. Recent form adds 30% of how much each side beat or missed expectations in its last five. 4. Head-to-head adds 15% of the same over the last five meetings. 5. Less than six days' rest costs 1.5 points.

The chances come from a bell curve around the expected margin, with its width measured from how far real results landed from the ratings. Games used: 136.

Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product.

Form — last five

BeziersLWLLL

  • Provence Rugby 54–3 BeziersPro D2
  • Beziers 24–25 AurillacPro D2
  • Valence Romans 47–20 BeziersPro D2
  • Beziers 34–24 NarbonnePro D2
  • Montauban 50–21 BeziersPro D2

This season + last: 38 games, 14-0-24 (W-D-L) · 21.2 scored / 28.9 conceded per game · home 13-0-6, away 1-0-18

Grenoble FCWWWWW

  • Grenoble FC 24–10 Biarritz OlympiquePro D2
  • CA Brive 14–26 Grenoble FCPro D2
  • Grenoble FC 23–20 ColomiersPro D2
  • Grenoble FC 20–17 Valence RomansPro D2
  • Nissa 33–37 Grenoble FCPro D2

This season + last: 38 games, 20-0-18 (W-D-L) · 25.7 scored / 26.7 conceded per game · home 15-0-5, away 5-0-13

Pro D2 — table position

  • 7. Grenoble FC4 P · 2-0-2 · +19 PD · 10 pts
  • 15. Beziers4 P · 1-0-3 · -75 PD · 4 pts
Full table ›

Head-to-head

FT

Pro D2

Beziers26
Grenoble FC17
FT

Pro D2

Grenoble FC23
Beziers8
FT

Pro D2

Grenoble FC45
Beziers14
FT

Pro D2

Beziers22
Grenoble FC25
FT

Pro D2

Grenoble FC34
Beziers19
FT

Pro D2

Beziers48
Grenoble FC3

Data: API-Sports Rugby. Live scores refresh every few minutes.