Nations Championship · Round 4

Ireland vs Argentina

Ireland

Argentina

Not Started

Kick-off: Fri 6 Nov · 20:10 UTC

GuessFC match prediction

Built from both teams' real results this season and last, every competition.

Volatility

Medium

Confidence

Ireland

60.6%

Draw

1.7%

Argentina

37.7%

31–24

Projected score

Ireland 6.4

Expected margin (pts)

55.3

Expected total points

23.9%

Losing bonus (≤7 pts)

How the margin is built (points, home side)

Team ratingsIreland +4 vs Argentina -0.1 (points vs an average side)+44

Home advantagemeasured from 60 games+1.25.2

Recent formIreland WWWWL · Argentina WLLLD+0.65.8

Head-to-headIreland won 4 of the last 5+0.66.4

Rest112 vs 62 days since last game06.4

Positive = towards Ireland. Spread of outcomes (σ) 22 pts, measured from these teams' results. Big win (15+ pts) either way: 52.7%. Volatility: Tight contest.

How the rugby model works

1. Team ratings: every result of both teams this season and last (all competitions) is used to rate each side in points versus an average team, adjusting for who they played; recent games count more.

2. Home advantage is measured from the same games. 3. Recent form adds 30% of how much each side beat or missed expectations in its last five. 4. Head-to-head adds 15% of the same over the last five meetings. 5. Less than six days' rest costs 1.5 points.

The chances come from a bell curve around the expected margin, with its width measured from how far real results landed from the ratings. Games used: 60.

Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product.