Round 8 · 2026

Austrian Grand Prix

Red Bull Ring · Spielberg, Austria

Weekend schedule

  • FP1
  • FP2
  • FP3
  • Qualifying
  • Race

Pre-race model vs result

What the model said before the race — built only from earlier rounds. Starting grid included.

97

Chaos Index

Medium

Confidence

DriverWinPodiumxPosResult
1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes37.4%
76%4.2P3
2Lewis HamiltonFerrari34%
78.8%3.1P5
3George RussellMercedes18.6%
61.6%4.9P1
4Charles LeclercFerrari4.3%
26.2%7.6P8
5Max VerstappenRed Bull1.9%
15.8%8.3P2
6Oscar PiastriMcLaren1.5%
14.7%8.6P4
7Lando NorrisMcLaren1.4%
12.2%9.6P7
8Isack HadjarRed Bull0.5%
6.7%9.6P6
9Liam LawsonRB F1 Team0.2%
3.1%10P9
10Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team0.1%
2.2%10.6P13

Why — factor breakdown

Andrea Kimi Antonellistrength +3.79
  • Starting grid · starts P4+0.91
  • Recent form · 18.1 pts/race (recent)+1.11
  • Qualifying pace · avg P1.7 in qualifying+0.48
  • Car / team · team 29.5 pts/race+0.6
  • Season level · 20.4 pts/start+0.63
  • Reliability · 11% DNF risk+0.09
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Lewis Hamiltonstrength +3.63
  • Starting grid · starts P3+1.03
  • Recent form · 16.9 pts/race (recent)+1.01
  • Qualifying pace · avg P4.2 in qualifying+0.36
  • Car / team · team 22.8 pts/race+0.4
  • Season level · 14.9 pts/start+0.41
  • Reliability · 4% DNF risk+0.2
  • Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.23
George Russellstrength +3.15
  • Starting grid · starts P1+1.27
  • Recent form · 10.5 pts/race (recent)+0.48
  • Qualifying pace · avg P2.7 in qualifying+0.43
  • Car / team · team 29.5 pts/race+0.6
  • Season level · 12.1 pts/start+0.3
  • Reliability · 11% DNF risk+0.09
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Charles Leclercstrength +2.04
  • Starting grid · starts P2+1.15
  • Recent form · 5.9 pts/race (recent)+0.11
  • Qualifying pace · avg P5.9 in qualifying+0.27
  • Car / team · team 22.8 pts/race+0.4
  • Season level · 8.3 pts/start+0.15
  • Reliability · 18% DNF risk-0.02
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Max Verstappenstrength +1.56
  • Starting grid · starts P5+0.79
  • Recent form · 7.7 pts/race (recent)+0.26
  • Qualifying pace · avg P5.2 in qualifying+0.31
  • Car / team · team 14.2 pts/race+0.15
  • Season level · 7 pts/start+0.1
  • Reliability · 18% DNF risk-0.02
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Oscar Piastristrength +1.47
  • Starting grid · starts P7+0.55
  • Recent form · 8.8 pts/race (recent)+0.34
  • Qualifying pace · avg P5.7 in qualifying+0.28
  • Car / team · team 16.4 pts/race+0.21
  • Season level · 7.9 pts/start+0.13
  • Reliability · 18% DNF risk-0.02
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
How the F1 model works

Each driver gets a strength from real results, each signal compared with the rest of the field:

  • Starting grid35%
  • Recent form19.5%
  • Qualifying pace13%
  • Car / team13%
  • Season level9.8%
  • Reliability6.5%
  • Circuit record3.3%

The race is then simulated 20,000 times with race-day randomness and each driver's own retirement risk; counting the finishing positions gives the win, podium and points chances. Tuned on the 2024–2026 seasons. Chaos Index: Average DNF risk 16% · Favourite's edge over 2nd: 3.4 pts · 6 different winners in the last 6 races here.

Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product. Based on 7 races this season.

Qualifying

PosDriverQ3
1George Russell Mercedes1:06.113
2Charles Leclerc Ferrari1:06.349
3Lewis Hamilton Ferrari1:06.408
4Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes1:06.414
5Max Verstappen Red Bull1:06.475
6Lando Norris McLaren1:06.502
7Oscar Piastri McLaren1:06.511
8Isack Hadjar Red Bull1:06.632
9Liam Lawson RB F1 Team1:06.955
10Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team1:07.007
11Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team—
12Gabriel Bortoleto Audi—
13Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team—
14Nico Hülkenberg Audi—
15Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team—
16Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team—
17Carlos Sainz Williams—
18Alexander Albon Williams—
19Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team—
20Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team—
21Fernando Alonso Aston Martin—
22Lance Stroll Aston Martin—

Past winners here

  • 2020Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
  • 2020Valtteri Bottas Mercedes
  • 2001David Coulthard McLaren
  • 1997Jacques Villeneuve Williams
  • 1982Elio de Angelis Team Lotus
  • 1980Jean-Pierre Jabouille Renault
  • 1976John Watson Penske
  • 1973Ronnie Peterson Team Lotus

Race result

PosDriverTime / statusPts
1George RussellMercedes1:26:37.97925
2Max VerstappenRed Bull+1.61118
3Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes⏱+1.98615
4Oscar PiastriMcLaren+21.80912
5Lewis HamiltonFerrari+26.39310
6Isack HadjarRed Bull+29.3998
7Lando NorrisMcLaren+31.5056
8Charles LeclercFerrari+45.6594
9Liam LawsonRB F1 Team+15.3342
10Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team+19.0301
11Gabriel BortoletoAudi+30.315
12Nico HülkenbergAudi+38.484
13Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team+39.251
14Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team+1:02.677
15Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team+1:05.647
16Esteban OconHaas F1 Team+25.932
17Alexander AlbonWilliams+28.082
18Fernando AlonsoAston Martin+4.833
RLance StrollAston MartinRetired
RCarlos SainzWilliamsRetired
RSergio PérezCadillac F1 TeamRetired
RValtteri BottasCadillac F1 TeamRetired

Data: Jolpica F1 (Ergast-compatible).