Round 9 · 2026 · Sprint weekend

British Grand Prix

Silverstone Circuit · Silverstone, UK

Weekend schedule

FP1Fri 3 Jul · 11:30 UTC
Sprint QualifyingFri 3 Jul · 15:30 UTC
SprintSat 4 Jul · 11:00 UTC
QualifyingSat 4 Jul · 15:00 UTC
RaceSun 5 Jul · 14:00 UTC

Pre-race model vs result

What the model said before the race — built only from earlier rounds. Starting grid included.

Chaos Index

High

Confidence

Driver	Win	Podium	Points	DNF	xPos	Result
1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes	44.1%	80.1%	89.8%	10.2%	3.8	P15
2Lewis HamiltonFerrari	27.8%	74.9%	96%	4%	3.3	P3
3George RussellMercedes	18.4%	61.2%	89.8%	10%	4.7	P2
4Charles LeclercFerrari	3.3%	23%	81%	16.5%	7.6	P1
5Max VerstappenRed Bull	2%	17.2%	79.3%	16.5%	8.1	P20
6Oscar PiastriMcLaren	1.4%	13.2%	77.8%	16.3%	8.4	P11
7Isack HadjarRed Bull	1.3%	12.7%	77.3%	16.6%	8.6	P5
8Lando NorrisMcLaren	1.3%	11.6%	71%	23.1%	9.5	P4
9Liam LawsonRB F1 Team	0.2%	2.3%	60.5%	10.2%	10.4	P6
10Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team	0.1%	1.5%	56.1%	10.3%	10.8	P7

Why — factor breakdown

Andrea Kimi Antonellistrength +4.06

Starting grid · starts P1+1.27
Recent form · 17.4 pts/race (recent)+1.02
Qualifying pace · avg P2.2 in qualifying+0.45
Car / team · team 31.8 pts/race+0.63
Season level · 19.8 pts/start+0.6
Reliability · 10% DNF risk+0.1
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Lewis Hamiltonstrength +3.48

Starting grid · starts P3+1.03
Recent form · 15.2 pts/race (recent)+0.84
Qualifying pace · avg P3.9 in qualifying+0.37
Car / team · team 21 pts/race+0.33
Season level · 14.3 pts/start+0.38
Reliability · 4% DNF risk+0.2
Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.33

George Russellstrength +3.18

Starting grid · starts P4+0.91
Recent form · 14 pts/race (recent)+0.75
Qualifying pace · avg P2.3 in qualifying+0.44
Car / team · team 31.8 pts/race+0.63
Season level · 13.8 pts/start+0.36
Reliability · 10% DNF risk+0.1
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Charles Leclercstrength +1.97

Starting grid · starts P2+1.15
Recent form · 5.5 pts/race (recent)+0.07
Qualifying pace · avg P5 in qualifying+0.31
Car / team · team 21 pts/race+0.33
Season level · 7.8 pts/start+0.12
Reliability · 17% DNF risk0
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Max Verstappenstrength +1.65

Starting grid · starts P7+0.55
Recent form · 10.2 pts/race (recent)+0.45
Qualifying pace · avg P5.1 in qualifying+0.31
Car / team · team 16.7 pts/race+0.21
Season level · 8.4 pts/start+0.15
Reliability · 17% DNF risk0
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Oscar Piastristrength +1.43

Starting grid · starts P8+0.42
Recent form · 9.6 pts/race (recent)+0.4
Qualifying pace · avg P6 in qualifying+0.27
Car / team · team 16.7 pts/race+0.21
Season level · 8.4 pts/start+0.15
Reliability · 17% DNF risk0
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

How the F1 model works

Each driver gets a strength from real results, each signal compared with the rest of the field:

Starting grid35%
Recent form19.5%
Qualifying pace13%
Car / team13%
Season level9.8%
Reliability6.5%
Circuit record3.3%

The race is then simulated 20,000 times with race-day randomness and each driver's own retirement risk; counting the finishing positions gives the win, podium and points chances. Tuned on the 2024–2026 seasons. Chaos Index: Average DNF risk 17% · Favourite's edge over 2nd: 16.3 pts · 6 different winners in the last 6 races here.

Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product. Based on 8 races this season.

Qualifying

Pos	Driver	Q1	Q2	Q3
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes	1:29.719	1:28.493	1:28.111
2	Charles Leclerc Ferrari	1:29.534	1:28.626	1:28.286
3	Lewis Hamilton Ferrari	1:29.644	1:28.864	1:28.458
4	George Russell Mercedes	1:29.985	1:28.920	1:28.481
5	Isack Hadjar Red Bull	1:29.276	1:29.069	1:28.746
6	Lando Norris McLaren	1:30.186	1:29.383	1:28.877
7	Max Verstappen Red Bull	1:29.549	1:29.113	1:28.893
8	Oscar Piastri McLaren	1:29.971	1:29.218	1:29.032
9	Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team	1:29.661	1:29.324	1:29.305
10	Liam Lawson RB F1 Team	1:29.300	1:29.429	1:29.716
11	Gabriel Bortoleto Audi	1:30.269	1:29.461	—
12	Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team	1:30.345	1:30.063	—
13	Nico Hülkenberg Audi	1:29.539	1:30.076	—
14	Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team	1:30.570	1:30.501	—
15	Carlos Sainz Williams	1:30.562	1:30.623	—
16	Alexander Albon Williams	1:30.638	1:31.341	—
17	Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team	1:30.680	—	—
18	Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team	1:31.227	—	—
19	Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team	1:31.321	—	—
20	Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team	1:31.451	—	—
21	Lance Stroll Aston Martin	1:32.863	—	—
22	Fernando Alonso Aston Martin	1:33.025	—	—

Past winners here

2024Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2001Mika Häkkinen McLaren
2000David Coulthard McLaren
1985Alain Prost McLaren
1975Emerson Fittipaldi McLaren
1973Peter Revson McLaren
1958Peter Collins Ferrari
1953Alberto Ascari Ferrari

Race result

Pos	Driver	Team	Time / status	Pts
1	Charles LeclercFerrari	Ferrari	1:27:11.335	25
2	George RussellMercedes	Mercedes	+0.427	18
3	Lewis HamiltonFerrari	Ferrari	+0.772	15
4	Lando NorrisMcLaren	McLaren	+1.149	12
5	Isack HadjarRed Bull	Red Bull	+1.598	10
6	Liam LawsonRB F1 Team	RB F1 Team	+2.023	8
7	Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team	RB F1 Team	+2.214	6
8	Gabriel BortoletoAudi	Audi	+2.413	4
9	Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team	Alpine F1 Team	+3.229	2
10	Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team	Alpine F1 Team	+3.445	1
11	Oscar PiastriMcLaren	McLaren	+4.014
12	Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team	Haas F1 Team	+5.245
13	Esteban OconHaas F1 Team	Haas F1 Team	+5.512
14	Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team	Cadillac F1 Team	+7.403
15	Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes⏱	Mercedes	+8.005
16	Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team	Cadillac F1 Team	+8.162
17	Carlos SainzWilliams	Williams	+4.391
18	Fernando AlonsoAston Martin	Aston Martin	+4.980
19	Lance StrollAston Martin	Aston Martin	+6.750
20	Max VerstappenRed Bull	Red Bull	Retired
R	Alexander AlbonWilliams	Williams	Retired
R	Nico HülkenbergAudi	Audi	Retired

Data: Jolpica F1 (Ergast-compatible).