Round 5 · 2026 · Sprint weekend

Canadian Grand Prix

Circuit Gilles Villeneuve · Montreal, Canada

Weekend schedule

FP1Fri 22 May · 16:30 UTC
Sprint QualifyingFri 22 May · 20:30 UTC
SprintSat 23 May · 16:00 UTC
QualifyingSat 23 May · 20:00 UTC
RaceSun 24 May · 20:00 UTC

Pre-race model vs result

What the model said before the race — built only from earlier rounds. Starting grid included.

Chaos Index

High

Confidence

Driver	Win	Podium	Points	DNF	xPos	Result
1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes	54.4%	89.7%	94.7%	5.3%	2.7	P1
2George RussellMercedes	34.7%	83.8%	94.4%	5.6%	3.1	DNF
3Lewis HamiltonFerrari	3.3%	32.8%	92.3%	5.5%	5.6	P2
4Lando NorrisMcLaren	3.1%	31.7%	84.5%	13.6%	6.8	DNF
5Charles LeclercFerrari	2.3%	26.9%	91.5%	5.3%	5.9	P4
6Oscar PiastriMcLaren	1.7%	19.7%	74.5%	21.9%	8.7	P11
7Max VerstappenRed Bull	0.4%	8%	73.6%	13.8%	9	P3
8Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team	0%	1.7%	55.7%	5.4%	10.5	P6
9Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team	0%	1.5%	52.8%	5.4%	10.8	DNS
10Isack HadjarRed Bull	0%	1.4%	45.3%	21.4%	12.4	P5

Why — factor breakdown

Andrea Kimi Antonellistrength +4.49

Starting grid · starts P2+1.15
Recent form · 23.8 pts/race (recent)+1.33
Qualifying pace · avg P1.2 in qualifying+0.51
Car / team · team 39.5 pts/race+0.72
Season level · 23.3 pts/start+0.65
Reliability · 5% DNF risk+0.14
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

George Russellstrength +3.98

Starting grid · starts P1+1.27
Recent form · 15.5 pts/race (recent)+0.76
Qualifying pace · avg P2.8 in qualifying+0.43
Car / team · team 39.5 pts/race+0.72
Season level · 16.8 pts/start+0.42
Reliability · 5% DNF risk+0.14
Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.23

Lewis Hamiltonstrength +2.09

Starting grid · starts P5+0.79
Recent form · 10.2 pts/race (recent)+0.39
Qualifying pace · avg P5.5 in qualifying+0.29
Car / team · team 21.2 pts/race+0.29
Season level · 10.8 pts/start+0.21
Reliability · 5% DNF risk+0.14
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Lando Norrisstrength +2.14

Starting grid · starts P3+1.03
Recent form · 10.6 pts/race (recent)+0.42
Qualifying pace · avg P5.1 in qualifying+0.32
Car / team · team 19.9 pts/race+0.26
Season level · 9.5 pts/start+0.17
Reliability · 14% DNF risk-0.02
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Charles Leclercstrength +1.87

Starting grid · starts P8+0.42
Recent form · 10.6 pts/race (recent)+0.42
Qualifying pace · avg P3.7 in qualifying+0.39
Car / team · team 21.2 pts/race+0.29
Season level · 11.5 pts/start+0.24
Reliability · 5% DNF risk+0.14
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Oscar Piastristrength +1.78

Starting grid · starts P4+0.91
Recent form · 10 pts/race (recent)+0.38
Qualifying pace · avg P5.1 in qualifying+0.32
Car / team · team 19.9 pts/race+0.26
Season level · 8.3 pts/start+0.13
Reliability · 22% DNF risk-0.19
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

How the F1 model works

Each driver gets a strength from real results, each signal compared with the rest of the field:

Starting grid35%
Recent form19.5%
Qualifying pace13%
Car / team13%
Season level9.8%
Reliability6.5%
Circuit record3.3%

The race is then simulated 20,000 times with race-day randomness and each driver's own retirement risk; counting the finishing positions gives the win, podium and points chances. Tuned on the 2024–2026 seasons. Chaos Index: Average DNF risk 13% · Favourite's edge over 2nd: 19.7 pts · 5 different winners in the last 6 races here.

Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product. Based on 4 races this season.

Qualifying

Pos	Driver	Q1	Q2	Q3
1	George Russell Mercedes	1:13.953	1:13.079	1:12.578
2	Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes	1:13.380	1:13.076	1:12.646
3	Lando Norris McLaren	1:13.503	1:13.049	1:12.729
4	Oscar Piastri McLaren	1:13.559	1:13.285	1:12.781
5	Lewis Hamilton Ferrari	1:13.767	1:13.041	1:12.868
6	Max Verstappen Red Bull	1:14.067	1:13.479	1:12.907
7	Isack Hadjar Red Bull	1:13.654	1:12.975	1:12.935
8	Charles Leclerc Ferrari	1:13.825	1:13.496	1:12.976
9	Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team	1:13.895	1:13.548	1:13.280
10	Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team	1:14.466	1:13.857	1:13.697
11	Nico Hülkenberg Audi	1:14.562	1:13.886	—
12	Liam Lawson RB F1 Team	1:14.346	1:13.897	—
13	Gabriel Bortoleto Audi	1:14.775	1:14.071	—
15	Carlos Sainz Williams	1:14.276	1:14.273	—
16	Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team	1:14.449	1:14.416	—
14	Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team	1:14.698	1:14.187	—
17	Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team	1:14.845	—	—
18	Alexander Albon Williams	1:14.851	—	—
19	Fernando Alonso Aston Martin	1:15.196	—	—
20	Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team	1:15.429	—	—
21	Lance Stroll Aston Martin	1:16.195	—	—
22	Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team	1:16.272	—	—

Past winners here

2025George Russell Mercedes
2006Fernando Alonso Renault
1986Nigel Mansell Williams
1985Michele Alboreto Ferrari
1984Nelson Piquet Brabham
1982Nelson Piquet Brabham
1980Alan Jones Williams
1979Alan Jones Williams

Race result

Pos	Driver	Team	Time / status	Pts
1	Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes⏱	Mercedes	1:28:15.758	25
2	Lewis HamiltonFerrari	Ferrari	+10.768	18
3	Max VerstappenRed Bull	Red Bull	+11.276	15
4	Charles LeclercFerrari	Ferrari	+44.151	12
5	Isack HadjarRed Bull	Red Bull	+5.033	10
6	Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team	Alpine F1 Team	+19.510	8
7	Liam LawsonRB F1 Team	RB F1 Team	+34.235	6
8	Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team	Alpine F1 Team	+34.572	4
9	Carlos SainzWilliams	Williams	+58.014	2
10	Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team	Haas F1 Team	+59.049	1
11	Oscar PiastriMcLaren	McLaren	+12.699
12	Nico HülkenbergAudi	Audi	+14.182
13	Gabriel BortoletoAudi	Audi	+21.156
14	Esteban OconHaas F1 Team	Haas F1 Team	+1:08.635
15	Lance StrollAston Martin	Aston Martin	+18.397
16	Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team	Cadillac F1 Team	+53.390
R	Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team	Cadillac F1 Team	Retired
R	Lando NorrisMcLaren	McLaren	Retired
R	George RussellMercedes	Mercedes	Retired
R	Fernando AlonsoAston Martin	Aston Martin	Retired
R	Alexander AlbonWilliams	Williams	Retired
W	Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team	RB F1 Team	Did not start

Data: Jolpica F1 (Ergast-compatible).