Round 4 · 2026 · Sprint weekend
Miami Grand Prix
Miami International Autodrome · Miami, USA
Weekend schedule
- FP1
- Sprint Qualifying
- Sprint
- Qualifying
- Race
Pre-race model vs result
What the model said before the race — built only from earlier rounds. Starting grid included.
59
Chaos Index
High
Confidence
| Driver | Win | Podium | Points | DNF | xPos | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes | 59.6% | 88.8% | 93.9% | 6.1% | 2.8 | P1 |
| 2George RussellMercedes | 21.7% | 73.3% | 94.1% | 5.8% | 3.7 | P4 |
| 3Charles LeclercFerrari | 11% | 56.7% | 94.1% | 5.3% | 4.4 | P8 |
| 4Lewis HamiltonFerrari | 4.4% | 33.8% | 92% | 5.8% | 5.5 | P6 |
| 5Lando NorrisMcLaren | 1.7% | 18.6% | 80.9% | 14.7% | 7.8 | P2 |
| 6Max VerstappenRed Bull | 0.8% | 11.6% | 76.7% | 14.6% | 8.6 | P5 |
| 7Oscar PiastriMcLaren | 0.5% | 7.1% | 64.8% | 24.3% | 10.5 | P3 |
| 8Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team | 0.2% | 4.5% | 70.9% | 5.9% | 9.1 | DNF |
| 9Liam LawsonRB F1 Team | 0.1% | 1.3% | 51% | 5.9% | 11 | DNF |
| 10Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team | 0% | 1.6% | 52.8% | 5.8% | 10.8 | P7 |
Why — factor breakdown
Andrea Kimi Antonellistrength +4.46
- Starting grid · starts P1+1.27
- Recent form · 23.2 pts/race (recent)+1.26
- Qualifying pace · avg P1.3 in qualifying+0.48
- Car / team · team 40.6 pts/race+0.73
- Season level · 22.7 pts/start+0.61
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.12
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
George Russellstrength +3.41
- Starting grid · starts P5+0.79
- Recent form · 17.3 pts/race (recent)+0.87
- Qualifying pace · avg P1.7 in qualifying+0.46
- Car / team · team 40.6 pts/race+0.73
- Season level · 18.3 pts/start+0.47
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.12
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Charles Leclercstrength +2.82
- Starting grid · starts P3+1.03
- Recent form · 14 pts/race (recent)+0.64
- Qualifying pace · avg P4 in qualifying+0.35
- Car / team · team 25.4 pts/race+0.38
- Season level · 14 pts/start+0.32
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.12
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Lewis Hamiltonstrength +2.13
- Starting grid · starts P6+0.67
- Recent form · 11.3 pts/race (recent)+0.46
- Qualifying pace · avg P5.3 in qualifying+0.29
- Car / team · team 25.4 pts/race+0.38
- Season level · 11.7 pts/start+0.24
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.12
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Lando Norrisstrength +1.68
- Starting grid · starts P4+0.91
- Recent form · 6.7 pts/race (recent)+0.14
- Qualifying pace · avg P5.6 in qualifying+0.27
- Car / team · team 13.8 pts/race+0.11
- Season level · 6.7 pts/start+0.07
- Reliability · 15% DNF risk-0.06
- Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.23
Max Verstappenstrength +1.23
- Starting grid · starts P2+1.15
- Recent form · 3.7 pts/race (recent)-0.06
- Qualifying pace · avg P9.6 in qualifying+0.08
- Car / team · team 5.1 pts/race-0.09
- Season level · 4 pts/start-0.02
- Reliability · 15% DNF risk-0.06
- Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.23
How the F1 model works
Each driver gets a strength from real results, each signal compared with the rest of the field:
- Starting grid35%
- Recent form19.5%
- Qualifying pace13%
- Car / team13%
- Season level9.8%
- Reliability6.5%
- Circuit record3.3%
The race is then simulated 20,000 times with race-day randomness and each driver's own retirement risk; counting the finishing positions gives the win, podium and points chances. Tuned on the 2024–2026 seasons. Chaos Index: Average DNF risk 12% · Favourite's edge over 2nd: 37.9 pts · 2 different winners in the last 2 races here.
Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product. Based on 3 races this season.
Qualifying
| Pos | Driver | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes | 1:28.653 | 1:28.289 | 1:27.798 |
| 2 | Max Verstappen Red Bull | 1:29.099 | 1:28.116 | 1:27.964 |
| 3 | Charles Leclerc Ferrari | 1:28.938 | 1:28.315 | 1:28.143 |
| 4 | Lando Norris McLaren | 1:29.183 | 1:28.920 | 1:28.183 |
| 5 | George Russell Mercedes | 1:29.492 | 1:28.477 | 1:28.197 |
| 6 | Lewis Hamilton Ferrari | 1:29.483 | 1:28.477 | 1:28.319 |
| 7 | Oscar Piastri McLaren | 1:29.920 | 1:28.332 | 1:28.500 |
| 8 | Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team | 1:29.584 | 1:28.975 | 1:28.762 |
| 9 | Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team | 1:29.914 | 1:29.070 | 1:28.810 |
| 10 | Nico Hülkenberg Audi | 1:29.645 | 1:29.439 | |
| 11 | Liam Lawson RB F1 Team | 1:29.595 | 1:29.499 | — |
| 12 | Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team | 1:29.340 | 1:29.567 | — |
| 13 | Carlos Sainz Williams | 1:29.540 | 1:29.568 | — |
| 14 | Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team | 1:29.838 | 1:29.772 | — |
| 15 | Alexander Albon Williams | 1:29.720 | 1:29.946 | — |
| 16 | Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team | 1:30.133 | — | |
| 17 | Fernando Alonso Aston Martin | 1:31.098 | — | — |
| 18 | Lance Stroll Aston Martin | 1:31.164 | — | — |
| 19 | Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team | 1:31.629 | — | — |
| 20 | Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team | 1:31.967 | — | — |
| 21 | Gabriel Bortoleto Audi | 1:33.737 | — | — |
| 22 | Isack Hadjar Red Bull |
Past winners here
- 2024Lando Norris McLaren
- 2022Max Verstappen Red Bull
Race result
| Pos | Driver | Team | Time / status | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes | Mercedes | 1:33:19.273 | 25 |
| 2 | Lando NorrisMcLaren⏱ | McLaren | +3.264 | 18 |
| 3 | Oscar PiastriMcLaren | McLaren | +27.092 | 15 |
| 4 | George RussellMercedes | Mercedes | +43.051 | 12 |
| 5 | Max VerstappenRed Bull | Red Bull | +48.949 | 10 |
| 6 | Lewis HamiltonFerrari | Ferrari | +53.753 | 8 |
| 7 | Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team | Alpine F1 Team | +1:01.871 | 6 |
| 8 | Charles LeclercFerrari | Ferrari | +1:04.245 | 4 |
| 9 | Carlos SainzWilliams | Williams | +1:22.072 | 2 |
| 10 | Alexander AlbonWilliams | Williams | +1:30.972 | 1 |
| 11 | Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team | Haas F1 Team | +6.400 | |
| 12 | Gabriel BortoletoAudi | Audi | +9.353 | |
| 13 | Esteban OconHaas F1 Team | Haas F1 Team | +13.873 | |
| 14 | Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team | RB F1 Team | +44.781 | |
| 15 | Fernando AlonsoAston Martin | Aston Martin | +1:14.964 | |
| 16 | Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team | Cadillac F1 Team | +1:17.513 | |
| 17 | Lance StrollAston Martin | Aston Martin | +1:22.631 | |
| 18 | Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team | Cadillac F1 Team | +1:08.255 | |
| R | Nico HülkenbergAudi | Audi | Retired | |
| R | Liam LawsonRB F1 Team | RB F1 Team | Retired | |
| R | Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team | Alpine F1 Team | Retired | |
| R | Isack HadjarRed Bull | Red Bull | Retired |
Data: Jolpica F1 (Ergast-compatible).