Round 12 · 2026 · Sprint weekend

Dutch Grand Prix

Circuit Park Zandvoort · Zandvoort, Netherlands

Weekend schedule

FP1Fri 21 Aug · 10:30 UTC
Sprint QualifyingFri 21 Aug · 14:30 UTC
SprintSat 22 Aug · 10:00 UTC
QualifyingSat 22 Aug · 14:00 UTC
RaceSun 23 Aug · 13:00 UTC

Pre-race model vs result

What the model said before the race — built only from earlier rounds. Starting grid included.

Chaos Index

High

Confidence

Driver	Win	Podium	Points	DNF	xPos	Result
1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes	36.4%	71.5%	91.5%	8.4%	3.9	P2
2Lewis HamiltonFerrari	20.1%	58.2%	96.4%	3.1%	3.9	P4
3George RussellMercedes	15.4%	47.5%	85.4%	14%	5.9	P3
4Lando NorrisMcLaren	10.3%	37.5%	80.3%	19%	7.1	P1
5Charles LeclercFerrari	8.4%	34.1%	84.7%	14.1%	6.6	P5
6Max VerstappenRed Bull	6.4%	27.3%	79.3%	19.1%	7.7	DNF
7Oscar PiastriMcLaren	2.5%	15.2%	75.8%	19.3%	8.7	P6
8Liam LawsonRB F1 Team	0.3%	3.5%	68.6%	8.6%	9.6	P7
9Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team	0.2%	1.7%	57.7%	8.7%	10.5	P12
10Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team	0.1%	1.1%	49.7%	8.8%	11.2	P10

Why — factor breakdown

Andrea Kimi Antonellistrength +3.52

Starting grid · starts P3+1.02
Recent form · 15.7 pts/race (recent)+0.91
Qualifying pace · avg P2.2 in qualifying+0.45
Car / team · team 26.9 pts/race+0.5
Season level · 18 pts/start+0.55
Reliability · 9% DNF risk+0.12
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Lewis Hamiltonstrength +2.89

Starting grid · starts P5+0.79
Recent form · 13.4 pts/race (recent)+0.72
Qualifying pace · avg P3.8 in qualifying+0.37
Car / team · team 25.1 pts/race+0.45
Season level · 13.7 pts/start+0.37
Reliability · 3% DNF risk+0.2
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

George Russellstrength +2.8

Starting grid · starts P2+1.14
Recent form · 10.3 pts/race (recent)+0.47
Qualifying pace · avg P3.7 in qualifying+0.37
Car / team · team 26.9 pts/race+0.5
Season level · 12.2 pts/start+0.31
Reliability · 14% DNF risk+0.03
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Lando Norrisstrength +2.54

Starting grid · starts P1+1.25
Recent form · 11.7 pts/race (recent)+0.58
Qualifying pace · avg P4.2 in qualifying+0.35
Car / team · team 17.5 pts/race+0.24
Season level · 9.3 pts/start+0.19
Reliability · 19% DNF risk-0.05
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Charles Leclercstrength +2.34

Starting grid · starts P6+0.68
Recent form · 11.9 pts/race (recent)+0.6
Qualifying pace · avg P4.3 in qualifying+0.35
Car / team · team 25.1 pts/race+0.45
Season level · 10.6 pts/start+0.25
Reliability · 14% DNF risk+0.03
Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02

Max Verstappenstrength +2.16

Starting grid · starts P7+0.57
Recent form · 11.4 pts/race (recent)+0.55
Qualifying pace · avg P5 in qualifying+0.31
Car / team · team 18.5 pts/race+0.26
Season level · 9.1 pts/start+0.18
Reliability · 19% DNF risk-0.05
Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.33

How the F1 model works

Each driver gets a strength from real results, each signal compared with the rest of the field:

Starting grid35%
Recent form19.5%
Qualifying pace13%
Car / team13%
Season level9.8%
Reliability6.5%
Circuit record3.3%

The race is then simulated 20,000 times with race-day randomness and each driver's own retirement risk; counting the finishing positions gives the win, podium and points chances. Tuned on the 2024–2026 seasons. Chaos Index: Average DNF risk 16% · Favourite's edge over 2nd: 16.3 pts · 5 different winners in the last 6 races here.

Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product. Based on 11 races this season.

Qualifying

Pos	Driver	Q1	Q2	Q3
1	Lando Norris McLaren	1:12.695	1:11.628	1:11.163
2	George Russell Mercedes	1:12.924	1:11.959	1:11.265
3	Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes	1:13.022	1:11.915	1:11.296
4	Oscar Piastri McLaren	1:12.610	1:11.641	1:11.305
5	Lewis Hamilton Ferrari	1:12.673	1:11.970	1:11.494
6	Charles Leclerc Ferrari	1:13.064	1:11.910	1:11.558
7	Max Verstappen Red Bull	1:13.290	1:11.874	1:11.618
8	Liam Lawson Red Bull	1:13.392	1:12.301	1:11.733
9	Gabriel Bortoleto Audi	1:13.142	1:12.433	1:12.079
10	Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team	1:13.074	1:12.525	1:12.185
11	Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team	1:13.115	1:12.616	—
12	Yuki Tsunoda RB F1 Team	1:13.085	1:12.627	—
13	Nico Hülkenberg Audi	1:13.188	1:12.797	—
14	Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team	1:13.322	1:12.800	—
15	Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team	1:13.544	1:13.137	—
16	Alexander Albon Williams	1:13.552	1:13.182	—
17	Carlos Sainz Williams	1:13.574	—	—
18	Fernando Alonso Aston Martin	1:13.650	—	—
19	Lance Stroll Aston Martin	1:13.818	—	—
20	Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team	1:13.826	—	—
21	Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team	1:14.371	—	—
22	Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team	1:14.600	—	—

Past winners here

2022Max Verstappen Red Bull
1982Didier Pironi Ferrari
1980Nelson Piquet Brabham
1977Niki Lauda Ferrari
1976James Hunt McLaren
1974Niki Lauda Ferrari
1973Jackie Stewart Tyrrell
1965Jim Clark Lotus-Climax

Race result

Pos	Driver	Team	Time / status	Pts
1	Lando NorrisMcLaren	McLaren	2:04:44.859	25
2	Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes	Mercedes	+11.536	18
3	George RussellMercedes	Mercedes	+15.906	15
4	Lewis HamiltonFerrari	Ferrari	+16.755	12
5	Charles LeclercFerrari⏱	Ferrari	+17.258	10
6	Oscar PiastriMcLaren	McLaren	+32.332	8
7	Liam LawsonRed Bull	Red Bull	+1:19.915	6
8	Nico HülkenbergAudi	Audi	+36.049	4
9	Fernando AlonsoAston Martin	Aston Martin	+48.393	2
10	Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team	Alpine F1 Team	+49.640	1
11	Yuki TsunodaRB F1 Team	RB F1 Team	+54.322
12	Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team	RB F1 Team	+1:05.680
13	Gabriel BortoletoAudi	Audi	+1:06.235
14	Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team	Alpine F1 Team	+20.534
15	Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team	Cadillac F1 Team	+58.582
16	Carlos SainzWilliams	Williams	+1:10.271
17	Alexander AlbonWilliams	Williams	Retired
R	Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team	Cadillac F1 Team	Retired
R	Esteban OconHaas F1 Team	Haas F1 Team	Retired
R	Lance StrollAston Martin	Aston Martin	Retired
R	Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team	Haas F1 Team	Retired
R	Max VerstappenRed Bull	Red Bull	Retired

Data: Jolpica F1 (Ergast-compatible).