Round 3 · 2026
Japanese Grand Prix
Suzuka Circuit · Suzuka, Japan
Weekend schedule
- FP1
- FP2
- FP3
- Qualifying
- Race
Pre-race model vs result
What the model said before the race — built only from earlier rounds. Starting grid included.
78
Chaos Index
Low
Confidence
| Driver | Win | Podium | Points | DNF | xPos | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes | 46.7% | 87.5% | 93.7% | 6.3% | 3 | P1 |
| 2George RussellMercedes | 39% | 85.7% | 93.8% | 6.2% | 3.1 | P4 |
| 3Charles LeclercFerrari | 7.1% | 51.2% | 92.6% | 6.4% | 4.8 | P3 |
| 4Lewis HamiltonFerrari | 6.2% | 47.1% | 92.5% | 6.4% | 4.9 | P6 |
| 5Lando NorrisMcLaren | 0.3% | 7.2% | 68.7% | 16.6% | 9.6 | P5 |
| 6Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team | 0.3% | 5.7% | 73.1% | 6.5% | 8.7 | P7 |
| 7Oscar PiastriMcLaren | 0.1% | 3.6% | 53.7% | 26.5% | 11.7 | P2 |
| 8Max VerstappenRed Bull | 0.1% | 3.1% | 56.7% | 16.5% | 10.9 | P8 |
| 9Isack HadjarRed Bull | 0.1% | 2.6% | 55.8% | 16.6% | 11 | P12 |
| 10Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team | 0% | 1.6% | 51.9% | 6.2% | 10.9 | P14 |
Why — factor breakdown
Andrea Kimi Antonellistrength +4.26
- Starting grid · starts P1+1.27
- Recent form · 21.9 pts/race (recent)+1.12
- Qualifying pace · avg P1.5 in qualifying+0.47
- Car / team · team 43 pts/race+0.75
- Season level · 21.5 pts/start+0.55
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.12
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
George Russellstrength +4.08
- Starting grid · starts P2+1.15
- Recent form · 21.1 pts/race (recent)+1.07
- Qualifying pace · avg P1.5 in qualifying+0.47
- Car / team · team 43 pts/race+0.75
- Season level · 21.5 pts/start+0.55
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.12
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Charles Leclercstrength +2.6
- Starting grid · starts P4+0.91
- Recent form · 13.3 pts/race (recent)+0.56
- Qualifying pace · avg P4 in qualifying+0.35
- Car / team · team 27 pts/race+0.4
- Season level · 13.5 pts/start+0.29
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.12
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Lewis Hamiltonstrength +2.5
- Starting grid · starts P6+0.67
- Recent form · 13.7 pts/race (recent)+0.59
- Qualifying pace · avg P4.8 in qualifying+0.31
- Car / team · team 27 pts/race+0.4
- Season level · 13.5 pts/start+0.29
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.12
- Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.14
Lando Norrisstrength +0.84
- Starting grid · starts P5+0.79
- Recent form · 4.4 pts/race (recent)-0.01
- Qualifying pace · avg P6 in qualifying+0.25
- Car / team · team 4.6 pts/race-0.1
- Season level · 5 pts/start+0.01
- Reliability · 16% DNF risk-0.08
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
Pierre Gaslystrength +0.62
- Starting grid · starts P7+0.55
- Recent form · 4.9 pts/race (recent)+0.02
- Qualifying pace · avg P10.2 in qualifying+0.05
- Car / team · team 5.3 pts/race-0.09
- Season level · 4.5 pts/start0
- Reliability · 6% DNF risk+0.12
- Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.02
How the F1 model works
Each driver gets a strength from real results, each signal compared with the rest of the field:
- Starting grid35%
- Recent form19.5%
- Qualifying pace13%
- Car / team13%
- Season level9.8%
- Reliability6.5%
- Circuit record3.3%
The race is then simulated 20,000 times with race-day randomness and each driver's own retirement risk; counting the finishing positions gives the win, podium and points chances. Tuned on the 2024–2026 seasons. Chaos Index: Average DNF risk 12% · Favourite's edge over 2nd: 7.7 pts · 4 different winners in the last 6 races here.
Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product. Based on 2 races this season.
Qualifying
| Pos | Driver | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes | 1:30.035 | 1:29.048 | 1:28.778 |
| 2 | George Russell Mercedes | 1:29.967 | 1:29.686 | 1:29.076 |
| 3 | Oscar Piastri McLaren | 1:30.200 | 1:29.451 | 1:29.132 |
| 4 | Charles Leclerc Ferrari | 1:29.915 | 1:29.303 | 1:29.405 |
| 5 | Lando Norris McLaren | 1:30.401 | 1:29.795 | 1:29.409 |
| 6 | Lewis Hamilton Ferrari | 1:30.309 | 1:29.589 | 1:29.567 |
| 7 | Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team | 1:30.584 | 1:29.874 | 1:29.691 |
| 8 | Isack Hadjar Red Bull | 1:30.662 | 1:30.104 | 1:29.978 |
| 9 | Gabriel Bortoleto Audi | 1:30.359 | 1:29.990 | 1:30.274 |
| 10 | Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team | 1:30.781 | 1:30.109 | 1:30.319 |
| 11 | Max Verstappen Red Bull | 1:30.519 | 1:30.262 | — |
| 12 | Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team | 1:30.915 | 1:30.309 | — |
| 13 | Nico Hülkenberg Audi | 1:30.358 | 1:30.387 | — |
| 14 | Liam Lawson RB F1 Team | 1:30.657 | 1:30.495 | — |
| 15 | Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team | 1:30.931 | 1:30.627 | — |
| 16 | Carlos Sainz Williams | 1:30.927 | 1:31.033 | — |
| 17 | Alexander Albon Williams | 1:31.088 | — | — |
| 18 | Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team | 1:31.090 | — | — |
| 19 | Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team | 1:32.206 | — | — |
| 20 | Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team | 1:32.330 | — | — |
| 21 | Fernando Alonso Aston Martin | 1:32.646 | — | — |
| 22 | Lance Stroll Aston Martin | 1:32.920 | — | — |
Past winners here
- 2025Max Verstappen Red Bull
- 2024Max Verstappen Red Bull
- 2015Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
- 2005Kimi Räikkönen McLaren
- 2001Michael Schumacher Ferrari
- 1995Michael Schumacher Benetton
- 1987Gerhard Berger Ferrari
Race result
| Pos | Driver | Team | Time / status | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes⏱ | Mercedes | 1:28:03.403 | 25 |
| 2 | Oscar PiastriMcLaren | McLaren | +13.722 | 18 |
| 3 | Charles LeclercFerrari | Ferrari | +15.270 | 15 |
| 4 | George RussellMercedes | Mercedes | +15.754 | 12 |
| 5 | Lando NorrisMcLaren | McLaren | +23.479 | 10 |
| 6 | Lewis HamiltonFerrari | Ferrari | +25.037 | 8 |
| 7 | Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team | Alpine F1 Team | +32.340 | 6 |
| 8 | Max VerstappenRed Bull | Red Bull | +32.677 | 4 |
| 9 | Liam LawsonRB F1 Team | RB F1 Team | +50.180 | 2 |
| 10 | Esteban OconHaas F1 Team | Haas F1 Team | +51.216 | 1 |
| 11 | Nico HülkenbergAudi | Audi | +52.280 | |
| 12 | Isack HadjarRed Bull | Red Bull | +56.154 | |
| 13 | Gabriel BortoletoAudi | Audi | +59.078 | |
| 14 | Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team | RB F1 Team | +59.848 | |
| 15 | Carlos SainzWilliams | Williams | +1:05.008 | |
| 16 | Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team | Alpine F1 Team | +1:05.773 | |
| 17 | Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team | Cadillac F1 Team | +1:32.453 | |
| 18 | Fernando AlonsoAston Martin | Aston Martin | +26.548 | |
| 19 | Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team | Cadillac F1 Team | +42.621 | |
| 20 | Alexander AlbonWilliams | Williams | +5.067 | |
| R | Lance StrollAston Martin | Aston Martin | Retired | |
| R | Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team | Haas F1 Team | Retired |
Data: Jolpica F1 (Ergast-compatible).