Round 17 · 2026 · Sprint weekend

Singapore Grand Prix

Marina Bay Street Circuit · Marina Bay, Singapore

Weekend schedule

  • FP1
  • Sprint Qualifying
  • Sprint
  • Qualifying
  • Race

Pre-race model vs result

What the model said before the race — built only from earlier rounds. Starting grid included.

85

Chaos Index

High

Confidence

DriverWinPodiumxPosResult
1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes36%
72.2%3.6P3
2Max VerstappenRed Bull18.9%
51.6%6.5P1
3Lewis HamiltonFerrari16.8%
52.8%4.6P6
4Charles LeclercFerrari10.7%
40.2%6.5P2
5George RussellMercedes10.7%
38.8%6.5P9
6Lando NorrisMcLaren4.8%
24.8%7.9P4
7Oscar PiastriMcLaren1.4%
10.5%8.7P5
8Liam LawsonRB F1 Team0.3%
2.9%9.7P7
9Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team0.2%
1.9%10.7P11
10Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team0.1%
1.5%10.6P15

Why — factor breakdown

Andrea Kimi Antonellistrength +3.46
  • Starting grid · starts P4+0.91
  • Recent form · 17.7 pts/race (recent)+1.01
  • Qualifying pace · avg P5 in qualifying+0.32
  • Car / team · team 29.6 pts/race+0.56
  • Season level · 18.4 pts/start+0.55
  • Reliability · 7% DNF risk+0.14
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.03
Max Verstappenstrength +3.03
  • Starting grid · starts P1+1.27
  • Recent form · 15.7 pts/race (recent)+0.85
  • Qualifying pace · avg P4.8 in qualifying+0.33
  • Car / team · team 22.9 pts/race+0.37
  • Season level · 11 pts/start+0.26
  • Reliability · 19% DNF risk-0.03
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.03
Lewis Hamiltonstrength +2.76
  • Starting grid · starts P3+1.03
  • Recent form · 10.4 pts/race (recent)+0.44
  • Qualifying pace · avg P4 in qualifying+0.37
  • Car / team · team 21.1 pts/race+0.33
  • Season level · 12.1 pts/start+0.3
  • Reliability · 7% DNF risk+0.14
  • Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.15
Charles Leclercstrength +2.51
  • Starting grid · starts P2+1.15
  • Recent form · 10.5 pts/race (recent)+0.45
  • Qualifying pace · avg P4.3 in qualifying+0.36
  • Car / team · team 21.1 pts/race+0.33
  • Season level · 10.2 pts/start+0.22
  • Reliability · 15% DNF risk+0.03
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.03
George Russellstrength +2.46
  • Starting grid · starts P6+0.67
  • Recent form · 11.8 pts/race (recent)+0.55
  • Qualifying pace · avg P4 in qualifying+0.37
  • Car / team · team 29.6 pts/race+0.56
  • Season level · 12.6 pts/start+0.32
  • Reliability · 15% DNF risk+0.03
  • Circuit record · no wins here recently-0.03
Lando Norrisstrength +2
  • Starting grid · starts P5+0.79
  • Recent form · 9.3 pts/race (recent)+0.36
  • Qualifying pace · avg P4.5 in qualifying+0.35
  • Car / team · team 15.7 pts/race+0.18
  • Season level · 9.8 pts/start+0.21
  • Reliability · 19% DNF risk-0.03
  • Circuit record · 1 win(s) here in the last 6 editions+0.15
How the F1 model works

Each driver gets a strength from real results, each signal compared with the rest of the field:

  • Starting grid35%
  • Recent form19.5%
  • Qualifying pace13%
  • Car / team13%
  • Season level9.8%
  • Reliability6.5%
  • Circuit record3.3%

The race is then simulated 20,000 times with race-day randomness and each driver's own retirement risk; counting the finishing positions gives the win, podium and points chances. Tuned on the 2024–2026 seasons. Chaos Index: Average DNF risk 17% · Favourite's edge over 2nd: 17.1 pts · 5 different winners in the last 5 races here.

Analysis for entertainment — GuessFC is not a betting product. Based on 16 races this season.

Qualifying

PosDriverQ3
1Max Verstappen Red Bull1:31.373
2Charles Leclerc Ferrari1:31.427
3Lewis Hamilton Ferrari1:31.496
4Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes1:31.562
5Lando Norris McLaren1:31.712
6George Russell Mercedes1:31.747
7Oscar Piastri McLaren1:31.860
8Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team1:32.225
9Liam Lawson RB F1 Team1:32.369
10Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team1:32.781
11Nico Hülkenberg Audi—
12Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team—
13Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team—
14Carlos Sainz Williams—
15Gabriel Bortoleto Audi—
16Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team—
17Fernando Alonso Aston Martin—
18Alexander Albon Williams—
19Lance Stroll Aston Martin—
20Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team—
21Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team—
22Isack Hadjar Red Bull—

Past winners here

  • 2024Lando Norris McLaren
  • 2022Sergio Pérez Red Bull
  • 2013Sebastian Vettel Red Bull
  • 2009Lewis Hamilton McLaren
  • 2008Fernando Alonso Renault

Race result

PosDriverTime / statusPts
1Max VerstappenRed Bull1:42:00.78525
2Charles LeclercFerrari⏱+7.33518
3Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes+24.57315
4Lando NorrisMcLaren+40.50612
5Oscar PiastriMcLaren+49.64410
6Lewis HamiltonFerrari+53.1888
7Liam LawsonRB F1 Team+1:21.6666
8Nico HülkenbergAudi+1:23.3864
9George RussellMercedes+1:24.6772
10Isack HadjarRed Bull+1:30.8621
11Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team+2.171
12Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team+5.006
13Esteban OconHaas F1 Team+25.647
14Carlos SainzWilliams+58.139
15Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team+1:00.950
16Fernando AlonsoAston Martin+1:14.454
17Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team+20.520
18Alexander AlbonWilliamsRetired
19Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team+17.347
RLance StrollAston MartinRetired
RFranco ColapintoAlpine F1 TeamRetired
RGabriel BortoletoAudiRetired

Data: Jolpica F1 (Ergast-compatible).